When we look back at what happened at the opening round of the MXGP championship last weekend, you get the feeling that with the champion, Tim Gajser out of the picture, there might just be five guys who might be serious contenders for this year’s title race.

We already know former World champions Jeffrey Herlings, Maxime Renaux, Romain Febvre and Jorge Prado have won before and while Febvres MXGP title was way back in 2015, some seven years ago, his performances in 2021, battling Herlings and Gajser, you just know he has the goods to battle for many GP wins and major points.

I think with Herlings coming back from his 15 months out and nearly winning the Grand Prix will make everyone nervous, but then again, I thought Jorge Prado looked better than ever last weekend and if he can battle Herlings in Sardinia in round two, then the pressure will play on the mind of Herlings, but if Herlings wins easily in round two, then I feel sorry for the opposition.

If I had to rate the chances of the guys I think are contenders, I would give Herlings a 9 for chances of winning his sixth World motocross championship, but as we all know, Jeffrey getting to the final round has been his biggest competitor. Of course, if Herlings wins number six, he joined Joel Robert with six titles.

I would rank Prado the second man in line and give him an 8 for chances of taking his third World title and joining the likes of Gaston Rahier, André Malherbe, David Thorpe, Paul Friedrichs, Guennady Moisseev and Greg Albertyn.

My third man in line is Febvre and I think he has a solid chance of winning, but he will need some luck I think, as for me, Herlings and Prado at the big two. I would rate Febvre a 7 to win the title.

While I think Maxime Renaux has a great shot at finishing in amongst the top ten, I get the feeling it will in fact be Seewer who finishes fourth in the championship points race. So, a six for Seewer and a 5 for Renaux. Seewer is already 26 points off Prado and the red plate and that is for me a major worry, even this early in the season.

The winner of the MXGP of Patagonia Ruben Fernandez will have good days, but being something of a factory rookie still, I think he will have some bad days and that will ruin his shot at finishing top five in the points. I wouldn't be surprised to see him win another GP in 2023 though.

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