Heading into this weekends MXGP of Turkey, it is going to be an interesting battle in the MXGP class. While the championship picture tells us it should be red plate man, Romain Febvre on the factory Kawasaki going up against MXGP rookie, Lucas Coenen of the Red Bull KTM factory team, we might get something very different.

We saw in Arnhem a couple of weeks ago, that Jeffrey Herlings is reaching his best speed and with him racing a round of the British motocross championship last weekend and winning easily, that speed will only be better arriving in Turkey next weekend.

Now, we mentioned it many times in the past, but the Afyonkarahisar circuit, some 500km from Istanbul is a place “The Bullet” has somewhat owned since its arrival on the calendar back in 2018.

So impressive is Herlings in Turkey, that his victories have been 1-1 in 2018, 1-1 in 2019, 1-1-1-2 in the 2021 Covid double header and he missed the two rounds in 2022 and 2023 due to (you guessed it) injury. He did come back in 2024 and finished 10-3 for his first loss at the circuit.

Tim Gajser has achieved significant success at the MXGP of Turkey at the Afyon circuit, winning the overall Grand Prix in 2022 and 2023 and securing multiple podiums finishes there, including second place in 2018 and 2024.

Now, as for Febvre and Coenen, Febvre didn’t race the first one in 2018, out with injury, he also didn’t race in 2019, again due to injury, he finished fourth in the first GP there in 2021 with 4-4 scores, then went 4-5 a week later in that Covid double header.

Big improvement in 2022 with a podium finish, but still 7-1, so adding his first moto win in Turkey to his results there. Again, improvement in 2023, with 1- 3 and second overall behind Gajser and then in 2024 he again finished fourth overall with 6-4 results, but did win the Saturday qualifier. Turkey hasn’t really been a place he has felt comfortable it seems.

Coenen has only ridden there twice, with a 18th overall in 2023 and then a sensational 1-1 victory in 2024, beating soon to be World MX2 champion Kay De Wolf and current red plate man, Simon Langenfelder. What Coenen can do in 2025, in the MXGP class, it is unknown, but going by his 2024 result on the 250, he likes the circuit and should do pretty well. What isn't in his favour recently, is starts and starts in Turkey are critical for results.

His confidence will be high from his Arnhem performance, where he was without doubt the fastest rider on that sand track. In Turkey last year, he got starts and that made his job a lot easier, and I think with the long start straight in Turkey and the powerful KTM, he should be good for starts in this weekend’s races.

Still, I am really confused who will win, but what we are sure to get is, the big four, Febvre, Coenen, Herlings and Gajser all having a crack at victory. Again, like in Arnhem, if Coenen can get riders between himself and Febvre, major points can be gained, but we saw in a handful of GPs this year, Febvre is a fighter and he knows his 31 point lead over Coenen in the MXGP championship points is a big enough lead, that he can in fact cruise to a 4-4, keep his regular Turkish GP consistency in place and still arrive in China and Australia with at least a 10 point lead over Coenen.

Saying that, if Coenen goes 1-1-1 and scores 60 points in Turkey and that is very possible and Febvre goes go 4-4-4 and scores 43 points, which is also very possible, then that 31 point lead drops to just 14 points and then, China and Australia will be very interesting.

At last years Turkish GP, Herlings made it clear, bad starts and its going to be tough and we all saw the Coenen starts in Arnhem, so he will have to lift his game, or his championship hopes will be dashed on the very circuit he took victory 12 months ago.

“I crashed in the first moto,” Herlings said of last year. “I had to come from last for P10. I managed to be good in the second moto, but it was almost impossible to pass on this track. We just followed each other.”

In 2023, Febvre made big progress in his championship battle with Jorge Prado, but like Herlings last year, complained of the circuit not being helpful when making ground on riders, or passing.

"I never had a really good feeling for this track,” Febvre said in 2023. “In all the years we have been coming here; I think this is only the second time I have been on the podium. I didn't feel comfortable yesterday, but I have always ridden better in racing than Timed Practice and I managed to turn it around today. There was a lot of drama at the first two turns both motos, but I could come out of there third each time. I couldn't find anywhere to make the difference so in the end I had to settle for third.”

As for Coenen, he continued the same feeling that Herlings and Febvre have about the Turkish track, and even though he won in 2024, he knows that starts will be critical, or his weekend will be a tough one.

“I made fewer mistakes here in Turkey,” Coenen said of his win in 2024. “The first moto was slower to start, as I followed Simon Längenfelder’s lines, learning where to gain speed and make passes. In the second moto, I was behind Kay, and even though the track was tough to pass on, I went for it and took P1! I’m thrilled with the result.”

So, looking at the comments of those big three, you know, 100%, if Lucas Coenen struggles in the starts, he won’t be doing the same thing he did in Arnhem. As good as he is, this track, this weekend, just isn’t allowing riders to make ground and even passing is difficult.

Then again, what we saw in Arnhem, well, that was generational stuff, similar to what Jett Lawrence is doing in America and what Jeffrey Herlings has done time and time in his career. So, what we get in Turkey, is as big a question mark as what we have gotten all season long, as Febvre gets momentum, Coenen takes it back, then Febvre has his turn to shine, before Coenen again fights back. Whatever happens, its going to be a very interesting GP in the beautiful country of Turkey.