I don’t think it is a major surprise that after Red Bull GasGas factory rider Jorge Prado dominated the opening four rounds of the 2024 MXGP championship, that the other three riders in the big four would start to reel him in at some point.

Having raced AMA supercross throughout the winter break, Prado came into the opening of the MXGP championship in Argentina ready and he was levels above his rivals. Great starts, blazing early moto speed and dazzling concentration handed Prado GP win, after GP win.

To watch him dominate the likes of five-time World champions Tim Gajser and Jeffrey Herlings and 2015 MXGP champion Romain Febvre was very, very impressive, because those three are no joke and probably all four riders inside the top five in the World (AMA and FIM combined).

There were times when many of us wondered if the three former World champions could catch up to the sport of the current World champion, and it wasn’t until Trentino that we saw something of a changing of the fortunes. Both Febvre and Gajser put major pressure on Prado and got the better of him, but come Sunday evening, it was Prado with a big smile on the top step of the podium. Was this kid ever going to be beaten in 2024?

Enter Agueda in Portugal and bucket loads of rain and the picture suddenly changed. Prado had already mentioned to the American media that his mud skills were not that great as he battled the likes of Jett Lawrence, Cooper Webb, Eli Tomac and Chas Sexton in the mud riddles rounds in the AMA supercross. His results in the dry were much better than his wet weather performances.

Well, we saw it again in Portugal and despite rather good starts, he was left behind as Tim Gajser and Jeffrey Herlings put on some mud riding that typified the all-rounds qualities of these two. Racing in some of the worst conditions in their careers, the Slovenian and the Dutchman looked untouchable in the opening MXGP moto.

Prado, he struggled big time and for the first time in 2024, he couldn’t match their early race speed. Disaster did see Herlings DNF with a mechanical problem, but Gajser raced off to win the moto and Prado finished in 15th. All of a sudden, the HRC man held the red plate and Prado was looking rattled.

Febvre rode to a safe third place, but could have easily been second, and the MXGP championship points were heating up. Moto two in Portugal it was Herlings who scored his first moto win of the season and you know, once Herlings gets the taste of victory, his speed raises and his victories start to come in succession. As for Febvre, a fourth place in moto two took him to second overall and he was just 18 points behind Prado, but 32 behind Gajser.

Now, as we arrive in the beautiful little city of Lugo in the north of Spain, we all wonder what will happen. Can Prado come back at his home race (literally he was born in the city of Lugo). A huge home crowd will be in attendance, the whole city will be rooting for their man, and Prado, already a three-time World motocross champion will be pumped to return to the top of the podium and gain some points on Gajser at the top of the MXGP championship standings.

I wouldn’t dare comment on who I think wins in Spain this coming weekend, because all four are brilliant races and Prado has shown enough in the dry, to tell me he will be much closer to winning, than his performance in Portugal. It was a disaster, not even so much the performance, but the momentum he has given Gajser, Herlings and Febvre, who all showed up in some way in the mud riddled event.

Confident and mental edge was in the hands of Prado before Portugal, but man, you just know that the other three will be salivating at the idea of pounding on the Spaniard on his home turf. If you think Agueda had drama, I get the feeling Lugo will be another level and the racing might be as close as we have seen it since that magical 2021 season when Herlings, Febvre and Gajser battled until the final round of the series. Add Prado and we have a weekend not to be missed.