With the Coenen brothers now officially racing at least the third round of the AMA motocross championships on June 13, you have to ask yourself, how will they do?

Of course, the first question is, how will they recover from racing the MXGP round at Kegums, Latvia on June 7? Fortunately, it isn’t a tough GP, and while its sand, it isn’t “kill me now” sand like Lommel or Riola. So, they should be okay.

When I took a look this morning, the quickest route between Riga and Denver was 14 hours, with a single stop in France, so maybe not too bad. Don’t forget, Latvia is nine hours ahead of Denver, but these guys are young men and should be able to cope with a long flight and time differences. I assume they will arrive in Denver on the Monday night, giving them four days to recover from their trip.

With races held in the afternoon on Saturday, they will actually be racing around 10pm European time, which again, for two 19 years olds, shouldn’t be a problem, but their body clock will be asking questions of them.

The flight, which will be a long one might cause some problems, but they both showed on their first ever trip to USA for the 2025 Monster Energy Motocross of Nations, that they recover well. Lucas finishing with a sixth place in his MXGP qualification race, then going 2-10 in the two races on Sunday. Sasha, who has to be a bit of a favourite to maybe even win the 250 class at Thunder Valley won the MX2 qualifier at the MXoN at Ironman and then scored 21-21 on a disastrous Sunday.

Fortunately, the Thunder Valley area isn’t humid in June, so they don’t have to worry about some of the things that GP riders have suffered in while racing these one-off events. It could be around 25 to 30 degrees, which will be similar temperatures that they will race in France this weekend.

The biggest problem for the two brothers, will be first, the production rule, so they will not be on their factory’s machines, but production bikes. I clearly remember Antonio Cairoli at the 2010 MXoN, where he did race a factory bike, complaining that his bike lacked power and that was of course, because of the high altitude. How much more powerless will the KTM's feel when they are not factory bikes?

Located in Lakewood, Colorado, at roughly 6,000 feet, the thin air reduces engine horsepower and causes fuel boiling. This forces teams to make special engine and mapping adjustments. It also triggers severe altitude sickness and physical fatigue for the riders. Having made the big trip over from Europe, WOW, I just don’t know if they can deal with that.

While Sasha is a killer starter, he might find it a little more difficult at Thunder Valley, as the power deficit and a steep, uphill start gate, riders often find themselves forced to use first gear just to get a good launch off the line. It will be interesting to see if he can combat that problem and still holeshot against the riders, who have ridden there before and know the story.

Another problem will be the short amount of time they get to set-up their bikes. While MXGP has all day Saturday and then also Sunday morning to have the bike right for the two motos on Sunday, the AMA program is just two timed qualifying/practice sessions, with a short initial "Combined Qualifying" session that starts with a brief parade lap, followed by about 15 minutes of timed practice and then a second timed practice session of about 15 minutes.

Cairoli not only struggled with the high altitude at the Nations in 2010, but also raced there in 2022, when he did some selected rounds of the Nationals and while he said his fitness wasn’t 100%, he felt the difficulties of the high altitude.

“I’m really happy about the race. Of course, I know that with my conditioning, all those guys in front are prepared for racing and winning the championship, and last moment only a month ago, I started to really work out to be here and it’s not enough. I felt today, I was a little bit worse off with the altitude.”

Clement Desalle went 5-7 at Thunder Valley in 2013, and word was both he and his GP team-mate, Kevin Strijbos struggled somewhat with the altitude. He also mentioned the difficulties of travelling from the GP of Brazil to US, which is a much shorter trip than Latvia to US.

“I’m quite satisfied with this race; I got a good qualifying time and a reasonable start in the first moto. I was trying to get hold of the first guys to follow this rhythm but made a small mistake which allowed Canard to pass. I worked to pass him back since I felt I was faster than him, but it wasn’t so easy to get by him. In the second moto my start was not as good as the first moto, but I didn’t have the strength to push forward. I think all the traveling to and from Brazil might have taken its toll there.”

I for one, want the Coenen brothers to be at their best, to battle for moto wins, overall wins or podiums, but I also think, with the long flight, the difficult conditions due to the altitude and the production rule, they can better just enjoy the experience and not expect too much.

Then again, why is a 65 year old media guy trying to work out what is best, for two 19 year old athletes, who are two of the best motocross riders in the world?