So, here we are, the countdown to the opening round of the MXGP championship and while Antonio Cairoli is dragging his old body into the 2021 season, the three younger riders in Tim Gajser, Jeffrey Herlings and Jorge Prado have all had victories in the longest pre-season is Grand Prix history.

Prado of course had success in the Italian races back in February, Gajser also won in Italy, although a little later than Prado, and while Herlings hasn’t been totally dominant, he has won his three pre-season races and is probably in the best position to enter Russia with a lot of confidence.

Then we add Romain Febvre and Jeremy Seewer, who are both in red hot form, and excitement is reaching fever pitch. If I had to pick, I would have to go with Herlings as the big favourite to win next weekend, because he has raced three weekends in a row and gone 2-1-2-1-2-1 and while he has been beaten by Ben Watson, Maxime Desprey and Jeremy Seewer, there is just a really good feeling about “The Bullet” as he bumped up his preparation.

I mentioned Cairoli and his old body, and of course, the Italian legend might be in the veteran’s stage, but there is nothing old about the 9-time World champion. His motivation and his race craft is probably as high as ever, and while he might not have the speed of Gajser, Herlings and Prado, he will clock laps, and remain positive for the best outcome possible. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him on the podium in Russia, but I am also a little worried that his brilliant career might just be in its final encore.

What about defending champion Tim Gajser. He has been hiding away on that beautiful circuit around the corner from his house in Slovenia and working away. He won at Maggiora a month or so ago and has been doing some local races as his other preparation, but you just get the feeling the most successful rider of the last six years has something of a surprise for everyone. He won in Russia the last time MXGP was there, and his throttle control will do him wonders as he battles the nerves of his fourth defence of a World title.

Then we have the young Spaniard, Jorge Prado. From everyone opinion the rider to take MXGP into the next 10 years. Is he ready to take over the mantle of Cairoli, Gajser and Herlings, or will his apprenticeship continue in 2021? I really find it tough to know what we will get, although for sure he will win GPs and while it might surprise us a little, there is nothing to say he could dominate the older more experienced rivals this year. His potential is so untapped, that where he ends up in this year’s battle is maybe the biggest question mark for 2021.

How about Febvre and Seewer? Both very similar in many ways, but also nothing like each other. Febvre can at times push to the very limit, and it seems Seewer knows his limit very well. One a former World MXGP champion and multiple MXoN winner, the other a multiple runner-up for the biggest prize in the sport. I think both these guys can get GP wins in 2021, but a lot will depend on the form of the big four. If Herlings for instance dominates, then the Dutchman might just win 15 or more of the GPs this year, but if Herlings struggles a little, expect a handful of riders to swap GP victories, including Febvre and Seewer.

We also have Glenn Coldenhoff, Ben Watson, Thomas Olsen, Arminas Jasikonis and Pauls Jonass to add to the list, and where these guys end up is a major question mark. For me, Coldenhoff is still capable of finishing top three in the World, and I really think the other four can be around top five, but in an MXGP class that is just loaded with talent and former GP winners, they could also all finish around 10^th place.

Whatever happens in 2021, this opening round in Russia might not tell us a lot, it will more or less be an introduction to the season, but I don’t think we really get to see what the full story is until we enter rounds two, three, four and five in England, Italy, Latvia and Holland. Two hard pack and two sand tracks will without question show us who the man is, and who are the pretenders. I can’t wait.

 My tip for Russia will no doubt change a few times this week, but I am going with Herlings, Gajser and Seewer as the top three. But it could just as easily be Prado, Febvre, and Cairoli. That is what we have entering the 2021 MXGP championship.