While the Arnhem Grand Prix, which will come after the next round in Sweden has been run just once so far, with Romain Febvre winning there and Dutch favourite, Jeffrey Herlings pulling out of the event after an injury in practice, the MXGP of Switzerland has returned to the GP scene back in 2016 and of course, Turkey has also seen a lot of MXGP action over the last decade.

We decided to look at the three circuits (Sweden, Switzerland and Turkey) that have a bit of history with our big three, as Arnhem, China and the final round in Spain, give us little indication of what we can expect from Gajser, Prado and Herlings at those tracks.

Herlings did win China in MXGP 2019, and Prado won MX2, and we will be using the same circuit, but one races doesn’t give us the full picture for that circuit.

MXGP of Sweden

We mentioned in an article this week about the big three and Sweden, with series leader Tim Gajser as the favourite heading to Uddevalla. The HRC man has won in Sweden on two occasions, in 2015 and 2017, but he has always shown good speed there, finishing fifth in 2014, second in 2019 and 2022 and an unfortunate 10th last year, after coming back from injury. But generally, he should be the man in Sweden in a little over a weeks’ time.

Herlings also a two-time winner in Sweden and three-time runner-up, but those results all came in the MX2 class and in recent years, he has either not raced in Sweden due to injury, or like last year, coming back from injury, he finished off the podium in fourth place. Sweden hasn’t been kind to Herlings, with injuries in 2015 and 2017 there. Prado on the other hand has three results there, all third places in 2019, 2022 and 2023.

MXGP of Switzerland

But what about Switzerland, a race than will run after Arnhem next week. Back in 2016, when the GP returned after a long period not being involved in GP racing, and it was Antonio Cairoli who won, but that man Gajser was second overall with Romain Febvre third. Amazingly, Gajser won the second moto, but finished with ninth in the other one.

In 2017 at the Frauenfeld circuit, it was Jeffrey Herlings who took victory, and he also had a lopsided win, going 6-1. Gajser was sixth that year and Febvre fourth overall. Jorge Prado made his debut in Switzerland in 2017 with a fifth overall with 4-4 scores.

2018 and that man Herlings won with 1-1 ahead of Febvre and Desalle, with Gajser again struggling with sixth overall and 12-3 scores. Little surprise in MX2 with the dominant Prado going 2-1 and winning ahead of Pauls Jonass and Hunter Lawrence.

Switzerland disappeared from the calendar in 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022, not running due to COVID or financial reasons, but in 2023 it returned, and Maxime Renaux got the win from Prado and Febvre, with Herlings fourth and Gajser was out injured.

MXGP of Turkish

We then move to Turkey and this race has been a Jeffrey Herlings domination on most occasions, at least when he hasn't been injured.

Turkey first ran at the Afyon circuit in 2018 and it was the year Herlings was near unbeatable in the MXGP championship. He won Turkey with 1-1 scores, second was Gajser with 3-2. In a surprise, Prado finished sixth overall in MX2 with 3-7 results and wasn't impressive at all.

Again in 2019 Herlings was unbeatable, going 1-1 for the GP win, with Gajser in fourth with 6-3 results and Prado won MX2 with an impressive 1-1 score. After missing 2020 due to Covid, Turkey was back in 2021 and Herlings won with 1-2 scores, ahead of Prado with 2-3 and Gajser 6-1.

No Herlings in 2022 due to injury, while Gajser won with 3-2, ahead of Seewer and Febvre, with Prado sixth overall. Gajser coming back from injury won again in 2023, going 2-1 ahead of Febvre and Renaux. Herlings was again out injured and Prado finished a very average 10th overall.

The Outcome

So, going by the results in Sweden, Switzerland and Turkey over the last 10 or so years, you would give the edge to Herlings, but there isn’t a lot in it, as both Gajser and Prado have had success at these circuits. As mentioned, both Herlings and Prado have victories in China, and you would have to give Prado the favourite roll for the final round in Spain, as he just loves racing at home. Herlings must be the favourite for Arnhem, and Gajser the favourite in Sweden. Turkey could go to anyone, as all three have looked good there, but I would tip a Herlings victory there.

Where defending champion, Prado has an advantage over his rivals, he isn't hitting the deck very often and both Gajser and Herlings are, or at least, more so than the defending champion.

Ray Archer image