As the MXGP paddock prepare for this weekends French Grand Prix, the leading riders in the 450 class are all looking at moto wins, podiums or GP wins. A long list of riders will be lining up on Sunday, with the thought of victory.

It isn’t just the two men at the top of the MXGP points standings, Lucas Coenen and Jeffrey Herlings who have a shot at winning this weekend, in fact, it is very possible anyone of nine men could take victory on the hard pack of Lacapelle. Let’s just look at it seriously, who really has a shot?

Lucas Coenen

First, Red Bull KTM factory rider, Lucas Coenen, who leads the series with 231 points, and has seven moto wins to his name and two GP victories. He has to enter this weekend as the favourite, and with a French victory in the MX2 class in 2024, he is very much comfortable on hard pack and French circuits. In fact, Coenen and his brother Sasha grew up riding hard pack in France, so it isn't alien to him. He finished second to Romain Febvre in last year’s French GP and will be looking at getting back on track with a victory on Sunday.

Jeffrey Herlings

Jeffrey Herlings, one of the most successful riders in the sports history in France, with from our count, seven wins at the French GP. Of course, the HRC man won the last round in Trentino and looked sensational. He has already mentioned how well the Honda works on hard pack and he has been racing every weekend since the last round of that championship. I am finding it tough to split Coenen and Herlings for the best place on the podium, because both are in such great form. Herlings has five moto wins and two GP wins so far in 2026, which is pretty damn good in a new team and on a new bike. Lets hope his starts will allow him a GP win.

Tom Vialle

While Tom Vialle is 25 points off the points lead of Coenen, you get the feeling, while Vialle might not win the championship in 2026, he will make regular trips to the top of the podium, when his form is good. Already a GP win in Switzerland, although maybe a little lucky with both Coenen and Herlings dropping chains at that round. Vialle does have two moto wins and opened the season with that qualification victory in Argentina. I am tempted to pick him for the Grand Prix victory and make up some ground on both the Belgian and Dutchman at the top of the series points. Already a two-time winner at the French GP, he isn’t in a spotlight as much as Coenen and Herlings and that has to help him. We mentioned starts being important and Vialle is the king of starts.

Tim Gajser

The next two men in the championship points are five-time world champion, Tim Gajser and two-time world champion, Romain Febvre. Both have struggled in 2026, although the Slovenian is making big progress on his new Yamaha machine. He did race to a 1-1 performance last weekend in an Italian race, but the opposition wasn’t GP level, so that tells us nothing. I think, like myself, most of us want to see him win a GP soon, as a nicer guy you wouldn’t meet and he is one of our sports legends. I cannot see it in France, but I sure hope he proves me wrong.

Romain Febvre

As for Febvre, he is having a horrible defence of his world title. No points on two occasions, no moto wins, and just six top three finishes in the 15 races run. He did score a second place in the opening moto in Trentino, so that gives some hope, but he just doesn’t look like a contender for the championship at this point. He is the defending French GP winner, and loves racing at home, so hopefully, the home crowd will inspire him to something great. Nobody wants to see the defending champion in fifth place in the points and 40 points off the championship leader, after just five rounds.

Kay De Wolf

While Ruben Fernandez and Maxime Renaux are above him in the points, the man I think will be the real dark horse in France will be Kay De Wolf. Seemingly finally over his thumb issues, the former MX2 world champion took victory over Jeffrey Herlings last weekend in a Dutch Masters race and I don’t think it matters to De Wolf if its sand or hard pack, he will be fighting for wins. Like Tom Vialle, I think de Wolf could easily be on the podium in France and we sure need this talented Nestaan Husqvarna rider winning races and GPs, because he is that good for the sport.

The Others

I don’t see Fernandez, Renaux or Andrea Adamo in contention for victory, but sure hope these three fight for top three finishes in the races, because all three are quality riders. Two are former world champions and all three have won GPs in their career.

The Winner

So, my tip for the weekend is some really strong battles between Coenen, Herlings, Vialle and De Wolf, with Gajser putting his nose in there somewhere. At the moment, these five have the best shot at winning the Grand Prix and starts will have a big part of a riders win, because as we know, passing on tracks like Lacapelle isn’t easy. I go with a fast starting Tom Vialle with the GP win, ahead of Coenen, Herlings, De Wolf and Gajser.