Who wins the second grand prix of 2026 at the Almonte circuit in the south of Spain? It is a question the majority might answer with the name Jeffrey Herlings and it’s a pretty easy guess, if you go on his round one win in Argentina.

We tipped him to win the season opener and I was pretty proud that I got that correct, but tipping him for round two is something I think most will do. He is in such good form at the moment and on a sand circuit, how can you tip against him?

The Dutchman has been in magnificent form of late, winning three events in a row in Leirop, Bariloche and Oss. Obviously the two Dutch events in deep sand and Bariloche, a little sandy, but also not.

The word is that the Almonte circuit is a similar type of sand as Kegums or even Valkenswaard, and that will obviously suit Herlings, who has and might always be, the "King of the sand", but lets not forget, Romain Febvre, Tim Gajser and Lucas Coenen also love sand and any one of them have the capabilities to win.

Something that we might forget is the fact, Herlings has had a perfect off-season, with no injuries and the excitement of being on a new team, a team that is without question, the most professional he has experienced in his career.

The Dutchman is also coming off a great end to the 2025 season, where he went 2-2-2-1-1-1-2-2-1-1-1-1-7-2 results from the final five GPs. Now, in the last month, he has gone 2-1-1-1-1 in the main races from those three events I mentioned above. We all know, once Herlings gets on a roll, he is unbeatable and while we could all question if his best days are over, maybe they are not?

I would struggle to NOT tip him to win this weekend, because EVERYTHING is in his corner to do just that. Even at 31 years of age, Jeffrey Herlings is super fast and a whole lot smarter.

In saying that, you just know that Romain Febvre will be wanting to put some slowdown on the Herlings charge and Febvre is without question a rider who bites down hard on his lip and just gets the job done. He isn’t a two-time world MXGP champion for nothing. The Frenchman loves to get in and fist fight in races, pushing his rivals around a little and showing them he isn't going away.

Febvre won the 2025 championship with consistent results and being smart and his runner-up spot in Argentina was something I expected. I think he will be trying to do the same in Spain and won’t take risk to try and beat an on song Herlings. I do see him again finishing second though.

For third, I am going with Lucas Coenen. He had a lot to prove in 2025 and as Romain Febvre said, it’s easy to race like he did, when proving your worth in the class is at stake. Coenen did lose some grip on the MXGP championship last year in the final rounds, although he did end the season with 1-1 on Saturday and Sunday in Darwin.

His disappointing performances in Argentina was blamed on his vision and problems with his eyes, and no doubt 2-4-6 isn’t a terrible score sheet, but you know that this teenager Belgian wants to battle the likes of Herlings and Febvre and would have been bitterly disappointed with those results. I see him coming back in Almonte and being on the podium.

I don’t mind saying, my call on Tom Vialle was a long way off. I figured he is just a 250 guy on a 450, but he looks ALL 450 and his Argentina scores of 1-2-4 were impressive. Like Coenen in 2025, he had a lot to prove, and I do think that once the dust settles, he will fall back into that third to fifth positions. I got him finishing fourth in Spain this weekend.

Tim Gajser, despite his third-place finish in the second moto on Sunday in Argentina just doesn’t look comfortable yet on the Yamaha. A ninth on Saturday in Bariloche, then a sixth in the opening race, shows that it might still take some time for him to get to grips on the blue bike. He did make big steps from the Saturday to the Sunday and has had a couple of weeks to fix any problems he might have had. I have him finishing fifth on Sunday.

Bavo Swijgers image