After two rounds of the 2026 MXGP championship, many are looking at just the two Grand Prix winners so far, Jeffrey Herlings and Lucas Coenen as being the two men to battle for the championship. It is an easy assumption to make, considering their dominant victories in Argentina and Spain, but sorry, but I don’t even come close to this assessment.

Story Geoff Meyer Image Bavo Swijgers

Sure, Herlings and Coenen have been pretty damn good in their victories, but until now, we have only had two soft tracks to go by, and hard pack could present a completely different winner. Let us not forget, bikes react on different tracks and while both Herlings and Coenen are very good on all surfaces, Tim Gajser, Romain Febvre, Tom Vialle, Kay de Wolf and Andrea Adamo are all very good hard pack riders.

While it is hard to go past Herlings and Coenen this coming weekend in Switzerland, one, being that Coenen won at this circuit last year and after his demolition of his rivals in Spain last weekend, its pretty difficult not to pick him as the early favourite and Jeffrey Herlings told us in Spain, that his Honda is a lot better on hard pack (a circuit we haven’t seen him racing on yet this year).

Coenen, after his injury riddled 2025 season, where he started with braces on his wrists and struggled in many of the first five rounds, scoring 1-3-3 in round three, it was in Switzerland that he went 1-1 to get his season up and running. The fact he came back to nearly pip the title from Romain Febvre at seasons end, was just sensational to watch.

“Really special,” Said after his win in Switzerland last year. “I just won two motos and the GP! Saturday wasn’t that great because I had arm-pump and the start was just ‘OK’ but today gave me two holeshots and I led every single lap! I had to deal a bit of pressure from behind but there is not that much more to say today. I still don’t like this track though! With the 450 you had to respect it. No mistakes and it feels like a perfect day. I’m still learning, and we still go step-by-step.”

Jeffrey Herlings has won twice in Switzerland, although those wins came in 2017 and 2018, so a long time ago. The Dutchman did remind us of last weekend though, what type of tracks his new Honda machine prefers and it wasn’t sand.

“It's mainly built for a hardpack track,” Herlings told the world media in Spain. “That's how I felt like it. Luckily, about 15 races are on hardback, so that's quite good. So, from day one we had to search for something. I think our setup is good, it is really good, but yeah, also Lucas's setup is good, and I know what kind of stuff they're riding with because I used to ride with it for almost 17 years.”

So, we can expect a faster Jeffrey Herlings this weekend and with Coenen’s comments from last years 1-1 performance, he might have to push a little harder on a track, he didn’t really like. He does have a year experience on the 450 on hard pack and Coenen did win races on hard pack last year in France, Germany, Czech Republic, Turkey and Australia, so his hard pack stills are very good.

It is pointless giving the hard-pack performances of Herlings as he is no longer on the KTM and his Honda, from what he has told us, is a lot better on hard ground, but just for a rough idea, Herlings won also won a moto in Germany, one in Turkey, a qualifier in England, and all three motos on hard-pack in China.

For me though, if he has recovered from his big crash in Spain last weekend, he might be a dark horse for victory this weekend. Often the king of the hard pack is defending world champion, Romain Febvre, who has, over the last decade shown his liking for blue groove circuits. He won a qualification race in Trentino in Italy, won motos in Lugo in Spain, France, England, and two in Czech Republic. Again, he had a big get-off last weekend, and it might be hard to recover from that mentally, but if there is any rider, who is capable of doing that, it’s the Kawasaki man, who is as tough as any motocrosser has ever been.

Again, Tim Gajser seems a long way off being his normal dominant self and I cannot see him winning this quickly, and he does have horrible memories of this circuit, having ended his championship hopes here in 2025. Until that crash in Switzerland, he had won eight motos and was a handy leader in the championship race. When he returned to racing at the end of the season, he failed to win a race and although his final eight motos were 4-4-4-2-2-2-5-3 performances. I think he needs more time and I sure hope his speed is back sooner, rather than later.

For me, these are the four guys with a real shot at winning the GP. I stick to my assessment of Tom Vialle, that despite his brilliant start to the season, he will eventually end up being a 3rd to 5th guy, and Kay De Wolf clearly needs more time to recover from his pre-season injury. Andrea Adamo might surprise, but I see him being similar to Vialle, a 3rd to 5th finisher on most occasions.

If Romain Febvre hadn’t had his big crash in Spain, I would be tempted to pick him for the win this weekend and I hate to do it three GPs in a row, but I am again going for Jeffrey Herlings, on his Honda machine to win. I know I got it wrong tipping him in Spain, and I know Lucas Coenen looked sensational, but as Herlings said, the Honda just isn’t as good as the KTM in sand but is better on hard pack.

Mentally, Herlings knows what the bike of Coenen might be like in Switzerland and he also knows how good his Honda is on hard pack. That mental attitude should give him enough confidence to go for it and take the win. Now watch Lucas Coenen make me look like a dickhead and do a similar job he did in Spain last weekend.