Interesting that we now sit with 17 rounds done in this 20 round MXGP championship and how much the story has changed on so many occasions. The first eight rounds, Jorge Prado won six of the eight rounds, yet since we turned the corner in Latvia, Prado has won two rounds, Gajser three times and Herlings four times.

Herlings has won three of his four in the sand, and one on the hardpack of Lombok, while Gajser has won his three since Germany on hard-pack and Prado also on hardpack. We mentioned a little while ago how Turkey is a great circuit for both Gajser and Herlings, but don’t count out the defending champion Prado, although his performances at Turkey have been somewhat up and down.

As Herlings mentioned to us after his win in Arnhem, he has domination on every occasion he has raced Turkey. Turkey first ran at the Afyon circuit in 2018, and it was the year Herlings was near unbeatable in the MXGP championship. He won Turkey with 1-1 scores, second was Gajser with 3-2. In a surprise, Prado finished sixth overall in MX2 with 3-7 results.

“I have never lost in Turkey,” Herlings grinned to us a week ago. I won there in 2018, I won there twice in 2019, and I won in 2021 twice, so I have won four of four in Turkey, and I won the only race we have done in China. Switzerland, I won a while ago, but it was a different location. I didn’t do great there last year.

Again in 2019 Herlings was unbeatable, going 1-1 for the GP win, with Gajser in fourth with 6-3 results and Prado won MX2 with an impressive 1-1 score. After missing 2020 due to Covid, Turkey was back in 2021 and we had two GPs in Turkey due to Covid, Herlings won the first one with 1-1 ahead of Gajser, who went 3-2 and Herlings won again a week later with 1-2 scores, ahead of Prado with 2-3 and Gajser 6-1.

No Herlings in 2022 due to injury, while Gajser won with 3-2, ahead of Seewer and Febvre, with Prado sixth overall. Gajser coming back from injury won again in 2023, going 2-1 ahead of Febvre and Renaux. Herlings was again out injured, and Prado finished a very average 10th overall.

Now, if Prado continued to struggle in Turkey, and Gajser finishes first or second, you have to ask if this is the circuit he takes the points lead above 25 and has a moto advantage over Prado, which would be huge for the Slovenians confidence and chances of winning his sixth World title.

Legendary GP man, Dave Thorpe, won three 500cc World titles and is one of the true HRC kings, is putting his man, Tim Gajser as the favourite to win this years World title and he feels the circuits ahead will suit him.

“Not because I am a Honda man,” Thorpe said. “But I think Tim (wins it). He is very calm in situations, and he works it out and the tracks coming up are good for him. The last one is in Spain, and you would think Prado will have something, but I generally think, Tim will pull it off.”

Whatever happens it Turkey, it is clear Gajser and Herlings might have an advantage over Prado, but if Prado gets a start and can run away, its hard to see either guy running him down. We have seen Prado suffer in mud, but for now the forecast for Turkey is 27 degrees and sun and we all know that Turkey usually turns on the great weather for us. My pick is a Herlings win in Turkey, followed by Gajser and then Prado.

Ray Archer image